Posted 12/30/2011 05:00 PM ET

As the year comes to an end, the airwaves and Internet are full of prognostications about 2012 from pundits, assorted experts, media mavens and politicians.

IBD Special Report: Year In Review

While those musings may be interesting, we at Investor’s Business Daily thought we’d add something new to the mix — namely, you. What do the American people predict will happen in the next year?

We asked Americans about everything from Iran’s nuclear ambitions to the possibility that ObamaCare will be repealed to the likelihood of another U.S. recession taking place in 2012. The answers that came back were surprising — with an unusual amount of pessimism about both the domestic economy and foreign affairs.

Our poll was taken from Dec. 4-11 with 909 respondents and a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points.

President Obama Will Be Re-elected

The public may be dissatisfied with the job President Obama is doing — just 37% give him high marks on his overall performance, and only 47% think he deserves re-election, according the IBD/TIPP poll — but most still think he’s likely to win a second term.

In fact, 65% say an Obama victory in November is very or somewhat likely. Just 32% say that outcome is not likely.

If these results seem incongruous, election experts say it probably reflects the public’s understanding of the power of incumbency. It’s not often that an incumbent presidential candidate loses. Plus, Obama’s GOP opponents have been busy criticizing each other rather than aiming their barbs at Obama’s record.

However, when you look at just the “very likely” responses, 23% think Obama’s is a lock for re-election.

Among Democrats, that figure is a surprisingly low 39%, and among independents it’s only 22%. Among Republicans it shrivels to 9%.

For almost every income and demographic group, the share saying Obama’s re-election is very likely is stuck in the 20% range.

The bottom line here is that while Obama is clearly vulnerable, Republicans would do well not to underestimate his chances in November. The public doesn’t.

ObamaCare Will Not Pass Legal Muster

Americans don’t like ObamaCare, and majorities have long hoped that it will be repealed. Those who believe it likely that the Supreme Court will overturn the law are also a majority.

Our poll found that 45% think it’s “somewhat” likely and 18% believe it’s “very” likely that the court will reject the law. By comparison, only 29% say it’s not very likely or not at all likely.

Read more at: http://news.investors.com/Article/596339/201112301700/ibd-tipp-poll-Americans-pessimistic-2012.htm

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